Good morning, it’s Thursday, October 1, 2026. The 10-year yield is back at its 2007 high, and oil just topped $100 again.

Micron's blowout guidance has Nasdaq futures green. But the Dow is pointing lower, and inflation fears are back.

The setup: Tech wants to rally. The bond market doesn't want to let it.

In today's newsletter:

What's moving the market: Micron beat estimates and guided above them, which is lifting AI and chip stocks. Brent is up about 2.4% to above $100 and the 10-year yield is near 5.33%, which is weighing on the Dow.

TODAY’S CATALYSTS

Most important: The ISM prices-paid index. It's expected to climb to 72.9 from 71.1, a sign that manufacturers are still facing inflation pressure from the Middle East conflict and tariffs. A hot reading puts Fed hike bets back on the table.

When a major U.S. trading partner targeted one American energy company’s profits, Trump publicly warned it was making a “big mistake.”

Why defend this company? One man believes the answer points to an overlooked opportunity hiding at the center of America’s AI-energy boom.

Click here to learn more

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Micron earned $33.42 per share last quarter, well above the $31.16 expected. It guided to $38.15 this quarter, versus $36.02 expected.

The bigger number is in the contracts. Customers raised their long-term supply commitments to $32 billion, up from $22 billion in June.

That's a forward signal on how much hyperscalers plan to spend. It isn't a backward-looking earnings beat.

The stock has more than tripled this year and is now a $1 trillion company. It's trading flat premarket because Micron flagged slightly softer margins and higher operating expenses for fiscal 2027.

What this means for investors: The AI buildout isn't slowing down. But at these valuations, "great" is already priced in. Watch the margins, not just the revenue.

Brent reversed an early loss and jumped 2.4% to $100.36 after Reuters reported that PetroChina canceled gasoline and jet fuel shipments planned for October.

Beijing is keeping fuel at home. That leaves less supply for everyone else in a market already strained by the U.S.-Iran war.

This came even as Middle East crude flows were reportedly nearing pre-war levels.

Here's why it matters today: Oil above $100 feeds straight into inflation data, and inflation data feeds into the Fed's next move. Energy stocks get a tailwind. Airlines, truckers and rate-sensitive sectors get a headwind.

If yields hold above 5.3% → pressure on growth stocks and housing. Mortgage rates already hit 7.58%. Savers, meanwhile, get the best yields in nearly two decades.

If oil stays above $100 → support for energy producers and pressure on consumers and transports.

If Friday's jobs report runs hot → a strong labor market becomes ammunition for another Fed hike, not a reason to cheer.

The obvious AI winners have already made headlines.

Chief Investment Strategist Alexander Green with The Oxford Club, believes the next wave could come from three lesser-known companies quietly dominating cybersecurity, retail automation and pharma.

He says investors should know these names before December 2026.

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The opportunity: Intermediate-term Treasuries.

Why now: The 10-year hit 5.293% on Tuesday, its highest since 2007, when it peaked at 5.328%. This morning it's right at that level.

Bull case: If the Fed's hiking cycle is near its end, you lock in today's yields before they fall.

Risk: Traders still see three or four more hikes over the next 12 months or so. If so, yields could rise further and bond prices would drop.

Watch: Friday's payroll report.

In September, the Nasdaq gained 1.86% while the Dow fell 4.29%.

That's a wide gap. Tech is carrying the market while old-economy stocks absorb the hit from rates and oil.

Narrow leadership is fine until the leaders stumble.

Watch: Whether the Dow breaks below 50,000.

Money is chasing AI infrastructure, even from China.

The Tencent deal is the company's largest overseas lease ever. It gives Tencent access to advanced chips it can't get at home.

Add Micron's $10 billion jump in committed contracts, and the message is clear: capital is still flowing into compute faster than into anything else.

Odds of an October Fed Rate Hike

October hike odds fell from 74.6% to 49.4% in a single day after New York Fed President John Williams said one more hike this year should be enough. Softer PCE data pushed the odds down to 35%.

Here's the catch: Traders still expect a hike in December. The cycle has been pushed back, not ended.

AI demand is as strong as ever, and Micron just proved it. But with 10-year yields at a 19-year high and oil back above $100, the bond market is setting the pace.

Stay invested in quality, lock in some of these yields, and let Friday's jobs number decide your next move.

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