Good morning, it’s {{current_date_full_with_day}}. The last time the 10-year Treasury paid this much, the first iPhone was a few weeks old.

Futures are sliding after yesterday's bond sell-off, oil is back above $94, and Xi Jinping has landed in the U.S.

The setup: Growth stocks face pressure at the open. Income investors are getting paid more than they have in nearly two decades.

In today's newsletter:

Red across the board as yields hold near 2007 highs.

What's moving the market: Inflation fears and rising bond yields are outweighing hopes for Middle East diplomacy and for the AI boom to keep running.

TODAY’S CATALYSTS

Most important: Jobless claims. Markets are already pricing roughly a 70% chance of an October rate hike. Another strong labor reading pushes that higher.

Across America, there's been violence, protests, lawsuits, cancelled projects, and campaigns to impose statewide moratoria to stop AI's impact on cities and small towns across the nation.

And Whitney Tilson believes these frustrations are only going to get worse.

In fact, at midnight on November 4th, the day after our upcoming midterm elections, he believes it's all going to come to a head. And it will have huge implications on your portfolio. He's sharing his full analysis free, here.

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The 10-year yield jumped 13 basis points yesterday to 5.10%, its highest since June 2007, breaking through the 5% ceiling it had been bouncing against for two weeks.

The trigger was good news. S&P Global's flash composite PMI rose to 58.4, its highest since July 2021.

The problem is what came with it. Firms' input costs rose at the steepest pace in four years, driven by fuel and transport.

The Fed already hiked eight days ago, to a 3.75%–4.00% range. Governor Michael Barr signaled more increases are needed.

What this means for investors: A 5% risk-free return raises the bar for every stock you own. Growth and tech names get hit hardest because their valuations lean on future earnings. Right now, a strong economy is bad news for stocks.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. and China will extend their "Busan Agreement" trade truce from November 10 to January 10.

That removes a November cliff. It doesn't resolve anything.

AI competition, the war in Iran, and critical minerals remain the main topics for today's meeting, and several top U.S. tech CEOs join the leaders for dinner.

Context matters here. The original deal followed a trade war that pushed tariffs into triple digits and saw China curb rare earth exports.

Markets weren't impressed. The Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng both fell Thursday. Watch chipmakers for any headlines out of tonight's dinner.

If the 10-year holds above 5% → pressure on high-multiple tech; better yields for savers in CDs, Treasuries, and money markets.

If oil keeps climbing → stickier inflation; energy producers benefit, while restaurants, airlines, and retailers feel the margin squeeze.

If the Fed hikes in October → homebuilders, utilities, and small caps could struggle.

60-year Wall Street veteran Marc Chaikin just issued a shocking new prediction. And if you have a PENNY invested in AI... take heed.

According to Chaikin, every U.S. AI firm now relies on massive data centers. But these monstrosities suck up our electricity. They drain our water supplies.

They steal precious land. That's why a new technology is about to make all current data centers obsolete – with the flick of a switch.

And the company he believes is behind it could make early investors very rich. Go here for Marc's full prediction – and the stock ticker – free.

The opportunity: Locking in 5% on 5- to 10-year Treasuries.

Why now: The 5-year yield broke above 5% yesterday for the first time since 2007. That's multi-year income without stock-market risk.

Bull case: If growth cools or oil eases, yields fall and bond prices rise. You collect income plus appreciation.

Risk: If inflation keeps running hot, yields could climb further. Laddering maturities spreads that risk.

Watch: The next FOMC decision on October 28.

Brent climbed back above $105 Thursday as U.S.–Iran talks at the UN stalled, reversing a slide that briefly took it below $100 earlier this week.

That feeds straight into the input-cost spike showing up in the PMI data.

Watch: $105 Brent. If it holds, the case for an October hike gets stronger.

Money is leaving tech and moving into bonds and energy.

In the week ending September 4, fixed income ETFs took in $13.7 billion while equity ETFs lost $8.3 billion. Energy led sector inflows at $829 million, while tech saw the largest outflow at $2.95 billion.

That's worth watching. Sustained rotation can matter more than any single day's index move.

U.S. Treasury Yields, Sept. 23, 2026 (approx.)

The 2-year closed near 4.90% yesterday, while the 5-year crossed 5% intraday and the 30-year touched 5.37%. Longer maturities paying more means investors want extra compensation to hold government debt for years.

For income investors, that's the most generous menu since 2007.

The bond market is running this tape, and 5% on the 10-year is the number that matters today. Strong growth and rising oil are keeping the Fed in hiking mode, which leaves little room for high-multiple stocks to disappoint.

We'd lean toward locking in income while it's this generous and keep dry powder ready for better equity entry points.

That’s all for the day. Go in crush the markets today!

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