Good morning, it’s Wednesday, October 14, 2026. Inflation day is here, and oil isn’t helping.

Futures are slightly green, but Brent crude is sitting above $106 after Houthi strikes hit Saudi Aramco’s headquarters overnight. Stocks are drifting higher as Q3 earnings season continues and investors wait on fresh inflation data.

Meanwhile, ASML posted the best quarter in its history and said demand will outrun its supply through 2028. The stock is lower anyway.

The setup: Headline CPI will likely run hot because of energy. The core number at 8:30 decides whether the Fed hikes again this month

➤ Palantir and Wall Street are in on it →
(from Monument Traders Alliance)

What’s moving the market: S&P and Dow futures are modestly higher while Nasdaq contracts sit near flat after Tuesday’s slide. Chips are still digesting a two-day selloff.

TODAY’S CATALYSTS

Most important: The 8:30 core CPI print. BofA’s Stephen Juneau says a 0.3% core reading would likely revive talk of an October hike.

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Today’s headline CPI will probably look ugly. That’s not the number to watch.

Economists expect September CPI to rise 0.6% on the month and 3.6% from a year ago, with core forecast at 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually. Energy is doing most of the damage.

The Fed already hiked in September. That move took the target range to 3.75%–4.00%, and bets on an October follow-up faded after September payrolls showed just 29,000 new jobs.

Right now, markets put October hike odds near 19%, while a December hike sits close to 85%.

What this means for investors: An in-line core reading keeps the Fed on hold until December. A 0.3% reading puts a back-to-back hike on the table before the Oct. 28 decision, and rate-sensitive stocks would feel it first.

The Saudi-Houthi conflict just moved closer to the oil market’s core.

Iran-backed Houthis launched missiles and drones across Saudi Arabia, and Aramco’s headquarters in Dhahran was hit. Saudi authorities reported a limited fire and no casualties, though the fighting has killed at least 18 people in the kingdom over the past week.

It’s not just Saudi Arabia. Oil topped $106 in Asian trade after Iranian officials said their forces plan to step up strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

Why it matters today: Higher oil feeds directly into the inflation data the Fed is watching. That’s a tough combination on CPI morning.

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If core CPI comes in at 0.3% or higher → October hike odds jump; pressure on long-duration growth stocks and bonds.

If Brent stays above $100 → Energy producers keep leading; airlines, transports, and consumer discretionary stay under pressure.

If the chip selloff stays sentiment-driven → Companies with booked, multi-year demand could recover faster than those exposed to pricing risk.

The opportunity: Semiconductor equipment makers with sold-out order books.

Why now: Broadcom’s CEO compared AI investor sentiment to a casino, and chips sold off. One day later, ASML said its planned supply for 2027 and 2028 won’t fully meet customer demand.

Bull case: Customers are committing capital years out regardless of how traders feel this week.

Risk: Expectations are high: ASML beat estimates and still slipped as investors had already priced in much of the strength.

Watch: Whether ASML’s Q4 guidance holds up when TSMC reports.

Most investors spent two years waiting for rate cuts. The Fed is now moving the other way.

The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 5.21% after Tuesday’s dip, and the 30-year is at 5.56%.

That’s a meaningful headwind for richly valued stocks, and a meaningful opportunity for income investors.

Watch: Whether the 10-year breaks back above recent highs after CPI.

Money is rotating into energy and out of memory chips.

Energy led all 11 S&P sectors Tuesday, up 1.8%, while health care lagged at -1.35%.

Meanwhile, Roundhill’s Memory ETF fell about 3.5% Tuesday after a nearly 4.5% drop the day before.

Two straight days of that is a pattern worth watching.

ASML Quarterly Net Sales (€ billions)

ASML’s quarterly sales have nearly doubled in a year. The company guided Q4 sales to €14.2–15.2 billion, up from €11.7 billion in Q3.

That’s the gap between how traders feel about AI and what chipmakers are actually ordering.

Today hinges on one decimal point in core CPI, with $106 oil making the Fed’s job harder. The chip selloff looks more like a sentiment problem than a demand problem, and ASML’s order book shows it.

We’d stay selective, favor businesses with contracted demand, and let the 8:30 number set the tone before adding risk.

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