Good morning, it’s Monday, November 2, 2026. Stocks are trying to put a rough October behind them.

Nasdaq 100 futures are up about 0.8% after the index briefly slipped into correction territory. Oil just fell roughly 4% on signs Washington wants a diplomatic exit from the Iran war.

The setup: This morning's bounce is about relief. Tonight's Apple and Palantir reports are about proof — whether investors still pay up for tech after Alphabet, Amazon and Intel spooked them on AI spending last week.

Add tomorrow's midterm elections and Friday's jobs report, and this is the busiest week of the fall. Here's what you need before 9:30.

➤ Unlock gains: 5 stocks for Nov 3 →
(from TradeSmith)

What's moving the market: Cheaper oil and a dip-buying bounce in chips after Friday's rout.

TODAY’S CATALYSTS

Most important: Apple after the bell. It's roughly 7% of the Nasdaq 100, so its guidance can set the tone for tech heading into Election Day.

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Last week, the market punished companies pouring cash into AI. Alphabet had its worst day on record Thursday after AI spending turned its free cash flow negative.

On Friday, Intel fell roughly 29% on a cash-burn warning. Amazon slid after reaffirming about $220B in 2026 capital spending — and signaling more in 2027.

Apple is the opposite case. It hasn't joined the AI capex arms race, and tonight shows whether investors now reward that.

Apple guided to 9%–11% revenue growth for the September quarter, implying roughly $111.7B–$113.7B. The quarter includes launch-week iPhone 18 Pro sales, and management is expected to address memory costs and supply constraints.

What this means for investors: Watch the holiday-quarter outlook more than the September beat. Strong guidance would suggest money is rotating within tech, not out of it.

WTI crude dropped about 4% to just under $100 a barrel this morning. Brent fell near $109.

The trigger: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Trump would like to resolve the Iran war diplomatically.

That matters well beyond energy stocks. Rising oil has been one of the Fed's main inflation worries, and futures still price roughly a 72% chance of a December rate hike.

Iranian-Qatari mediation continues, but recent attacks on Gulf tankers mean supply risk hasn't gone away.

Why it matters today: Cheaper crude helps consumers, airlines and rate-sensitive stocks. A breakdown in talks would reverse all of it quickly.

You might not care about these upcoming midterm elections. But if you care about your wealth and investments, Whitney Tilson believes these midterms could make you rich.

That's because a single catalyst ahead of these midterms will determine who earns the lion's share of wealth over the next decade or more.

And that's why if you're an American who cares about your money, wealth, and this country… you'll want to watch this free presentation Whitney has laid out for you today.

If oil stays below $100 → Less inflation pressure and relief for airlines and consumers; pressure on energy producers after a long run.

If the 10-year holds near 4.9% → Support for stock valuations, while yields this high keep income options attractive for savers.

If Apple guides strong → Cash-rich mega-caps could keep attracting money even as investors sour on the heaviest AI spenders.

The opportunity: Front-end Treasuries, through T-bills or short-term Treasury ETFs.

Why now: The 2-year yields about 4.59%, and the Fed hiked in September for the first time since 2023. Another hike would keep short rates elevated.

Bull case: You lock in solid income with little interest-rate risk while stocks sort out the AI debate.

Risk: If the economy cracks and the Fed pivots, rates fall and your reinvestment rate drops.

Watch: Friday's October jobs report.

Everyone is focused on AI spending. Fewer investors are focused on the Fed.

The Fed held at 3.75%–4.00% last week after hiking in September, and futures still assign roughly a 72%–75% chance of another hike in December.

That's not automatically bearish, but it's the opposite of the rate-cut backdrop behind past rallies.

Watch: Friday's jobs report and the Nov. 10 CPI print.

Money is leaving cash, not stocks — at least before Friday.

In the week ended Oct. 28, global equity funds drew inflows for a sixth straight week, while money-market funds saw about $38.5B in outflows, per LSEG data. Gold funds lost $1.51B; energy funds added $177M.

The catch: that data predates Friday's tech rout. This week's flows will show whether investors bought the dip or ran.

Midterm Years Are Tough. The Year After Isn't.

Midterm years have historically been the weakest stretch of the four-year cycle for stocks. But per Sequoia Financial, the S&P 500 rebounded after every one of the past 16 midterms.

Tomorrow's vote may matter less for who wins than for clearing the uncertainty.

Futures are bouncing, but a bounce isn't a bottom. Tonight's Apple and Palantir reports will show whether investors are rotating within tech or leaving it.

With midterms tomorrow and a Fed still leaning toward hikes, stay patient and let this week's data come to you.

P.S. Whitney believes what's happening today could reset the financial system after these midterm elections. If Whitney's even half-right, it's going to have a huge impact on your money and your future. Get the details here...