Good morning, it’s Wednesday, October 28, 2026. Today is the most crowded day of the quarter for your portfolio.

The Fed announces its rate decision at 2:00 PM. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close. Brent crude topped $115 a barrel following a report that the US may resume military strikes on Iran after next week’s midterms.

Futures are split. The Nasdaq 100 is set for a third straight day of gains as blowout results from memory giant SK Hynix lifted shares tied to the AI buildout. The Dow is slipping on oil.

The setup: A rate hold is priced in. Whether Chair Kevin Warsh keeps a December hike on the table is not.

➤ Anthropic’s $40 million midterm move →
(from The Oxford Club)

Tech green, industrials red. Expect volatility at 2:00 PM ET.

What’s moving the market: Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures were up 0.30% and 0.10%, while Dow futures were down 0.19% as of 5:30 a.m. EDT.

The 10-year yield edged above 5% as investors geared up for the Fed decision.

TODAY’S CATALYSTS

Most important: The 2:30 presser. Any December hike signal could push yields higher and pressure rate-sensitive stocks.

SpaceX lost $4 billion in one quarter. OpenAI lost $39 billion last year. But the REAL #1 IPO of 2026 projects a profit of $559 million in one quarter!

The King of Tech reveals a backdoor in BEFORE the IPO.

Please support our sponsors!

Futures markets are pricing roughly a 90% probability that the Fed holds at 3.75%–4.00%. That follows September’s 25-basis-point hike, the Fed’s first since July 2023.

The problem is mixed data. September CPI rose 3.7% year over year, while the economy added just 29,000 jobs.

Minutes from September showed most officials saw one more hike by year-end as appropriate. Timing adds pressure: the decision lands six days before Election Day, and Wolfe Research says committee members would prefer not to hike now.

What this means for investors: Warsh’s tone matters more than the decision. A hawkish lean favors cash and short-term Treasuries over long-duration growth stocks.

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said they hit Saudi Arabia’s biggest refinery with a missile; Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm the strike on the 550,000 barrel-per-day facility. The fire was contained and no barrels are confirmed lost.

The market isn’t waiting for confirmation. Brent rose 1.3% to $115.59, erasing most of Tuesday’s diplomacy-driven drop.

SEB flagged a significant risk premium tied to a possible US or Israeli attack on Iran.

Why it matters today: Higher crude feeds straight into the inflation the Fed is fighting. That makes a December hike harder to rule out.

The stock market is about to split in TWO...

With some AI stocks crashing as much as 77% and others soaring to the biggest gains of this generation.

Click to decide what side you'll be on...

If Warsh sounds hawkish → pressure on growth stocks; cash and short-term Treasuries stay attractive for income investors.

If Brent pushes toward $120 → supportive for energy producers; pressure on airlines, transports and consumers.

If Microsoft and Alphabet raise capex → chips, memory and power infrastructure benefit; free cash flow at the spenders gets scrutinized.

The opportunity: Memory chipmakers supplying high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI processors.

Why now: SK Hynix said its HBM and DRAM chips are sold out through 2029, with HBM demand at twice its supply.

Bull case: It has agreements with 14 major customers covering more than half its 2027 and 2028 capacity.

Risk: Memory is historically boom-and-bust. These stocks can drop 20% fast.

Watch: Microsoft’s capex tonight. Quarterly spending is expected to exceed $50 billion.

The 10-year yield hit 5.365% on October 7, the highest level since 2002.

For income investors, that’s good news. You can lock in real yield without stock-market risk.

For stock investors, it raises the bar. When Treasuries pay 5%, richly valued stocks have less room for disappointment.

Watch: Whether the 10-year holds above 5% after 2:30.

Big Tech is now asking shareholders to help fund AI.

Nvidia will invest $3 billion in Meta after Meta laid out a plan to raise up to $95 billion for its AI infrastructure build-out. It follows similar equity offerings by Alphabet and Intel earlier this year, rare moves for cash-rich companies.

Why it matters: When giants issue stock, AI spending is outrunning internal cash flow. Watch for dilution.

Brent Crude's October Climb ($/barrel)

Brent moved from $100 to as high as $116.72 in October on Hormuz attacks, Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia, and US-Iran diplomacy ahead of the November 3 midterms.

Each new attack adds risk premium, even with no confirmed supply loss. Oil may be a bigger inflation wildcard than the Fed into year-end.

Today’s hold is priced in; Warsh’s December signal and tonight’s capex numbers are not. Oil at $115 makes the inflation fight harder and keeps a hike possible.

Stay balanced: AI infrastructure leaders for growth, 5% Treasuries for income, and some dry powder for post-Fed volatility.

P.S. I called NVDA, back when it was $6. It has shot up 3,100% in 6 years. So, I think NVDA’s CEO knows what he’s talking about. Click here for more details.