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GOOD MORNING
Trump just called off a strike on Iran. Oil is down 6%. And by the time you finish your coffee, a $400 billion pharma megadeal will be the second-biggest story of your morning — not the first.
Featured: Revealed: Elon’s Coming AI Disruption (Ad)
Futures Snapshot
S&P 500 | 7,562.50 | +0.58% |
Nasdaq | 28,531.50 | +0.45% |
Dow Jones | 53,066 | +0.82% |
Bitcoin | $62,641 | -0.78% |
Ethereum | $1,842 | -0.36% |
Gold | $4,105.10 | -0.05% |
Oil (Brent) | $79.47 | -6.14% |
VIX | 15.95 | -0.25% |
What's moving the market: Futures are green across the board after Trump called off a planned strike on Iran over the weekend, opting to negotiate instead on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil is getting crushed on the news. Bonds rallied too. It's a clean risk-on morning — but it's also the calm before a brutal data-and-earnings week.
FROM OUR PARTNERS
Marc Chaikin, founder of Chaikin Analytics, is sharing a strategy he calls 'Sell This, Buy That' - a way to move out of overpriced AI stocks before the tech trade breaks down and into lesser-known names with real potential to challenge the Mag 7.
One pick he calls 'an upgrade to Tesla stock' is a little-known company that just inked a partnership with Nvidia, positioning it ahead of Tesla in the autonomous vehicle race.
THE BIG STORY
Trump Stands Down on Iran. Oil Craters. Risk-On Kicks Off the Week.
Gif by diimsastock on Giphy
The president called off a "massive attack" on Iran over the weekend, choosing negotiation over military action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Crude dropped roughly 6% on the news, and Treasury’s caught a bid.
Here's why it matters: the Strait of Hormuz is the artery for a fifth of the world's oil. Any de-escalation there removes a real tail risk that's been quietly propping up energy prices and keeping traders defensive.
That's the good news. The bad news: this comes in a week already loaded with ISM data, a heavy earnings slate, and Friday's non-farm payrolls report. One economist called the broader backdrop "volatility and dispersion" — translation: don't get comfortable just because futures are green.
Watch energy names for the biggest immediate reaction. Watch bonds for the second-order effect. A 10-year yield near 4.69% is still elevated enough to matter for growth stocks if it creeps higher.
BREAKING NEWS
AstraZeneca and Bristol Myers Squibb in Talks for a $400 Billion Megadeal
The Financial Times reports AstraZeneca has held months of preliminary talks about merging with Bristol Myers Squibb. AstraZeneca is worth roughly $263 billion, Bristol Myers around $133 billion — combined, this would be one of the largest pharma tie-ups ever.
Why it matters: this would push AstraZeneca past the pack to become the world's fourth-largest drugmaker by market cap, and it deepens AstraZeneca's pivot toward the U.S. market following its recent New York listing upgrade. That pivot is already rattling London, where regulators worry about losing another blue-chip.
Both companies run major oncology franchises, so antitrust scrutiny is close to guaranteed. The deal structure isn't finalized, but expect a mix of cash and stock.
Talks could still collapse — they've dragged for months already — but if it lands, it tops AstraZeneca's $39 billion Alexion deal as its biggest ever.
Healthcare M&A just got a lot more interesting this week.
EARNINGS PREVIEW
Earnings (Pre-Market)
Marriott International (MAR)
Tyson Foods (TSN)
Loews (L)
Earnings (After Close)
Palantir (PLTR) ⭐ — Consensus: $1.81B revenue, $0.34–$0.35 EPS, vs. $0.16 a year ago. Eight straight beats. U.S. commercial revenue expected near $716M.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX)
Diamondback Energy (FANG)
ONEOK (OKE)
ON Semiconductor (ON)
TKO Group (TKO)
Williams Companies (WMB)
Snap (SNAP)
Clorox (CLX)
Options are pricing a ~12% move in Palantir. At 71x trailing sales, there's zero room for a soft U.S. commercial number or cautious Q3 guidance.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
9:45 AM — S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)
10:00 AM — ISM Manufacturing PMI ⭐ (Est. 54.0 vs. 53.3)
10:00 AM — Construction Spending (Est. +0.2%)
Expect biggest volatility: 9:45–10:15am window, and again after 5pm when Palantir reports.
TRENDING TICKERS
PLTR — Reports tonight after an 85% year-over-year revenue run rate; the whole AI-software trade rides on this print.
BABA — Up 4.4% after launching its Qwen3.8-Max model to compete directly with U.S. AI leaders.
ATKR — Surging over 20% on a reported $3.8B cash acquisition by Prysmian.
MOVERS & SHAKERS
Gainers
Atkore (ATKR) — M&A premium on Prysmian deal talk
Faraday Future (FFAI) — record July deliveries, up nearly 20%
Alibaba (BABA) — new AI model launch
Losers
AstraZeneca (AZN) — down on merger/antitrust uncertainty
Samsung — Kospi's worst month since 2008
SK Hynix — dragged down with the broader Korean chip selloff
FROM OUR PARTNERS
Saudi Arabia has quietly walked away from its 1974 agreement to price oil exclusively in U.S. dollars - the bedrock of American financial supremacy for fifty years. The Saudis have since inked a $7 billion currency swap with Beijing, begun clearing oil in digital yuan, and joined China's mBridge cross-border settlement network.
As dollar demand weakens and foreign buyers retreat from the U.S. Treasuries, analyst Garrett Goggin, CFA, CMT has already called moves of 1,023%, 538%, 741%, and 416% in gold-related names. He's now pointing to a specific gold asset still priced at a dramatic discount to spot gold.
SECTORS TO WATCH
Energy — oil down 6%, watch for follow-through pressure on producers
Healthcare/Pharma — AstraZeneca-Bristol Myers deal chatter
AI/Semiconductors — Korean chip selloff bleeding into U.S. memory names
Government tech/defense — Palantir's Maven contract in focus tonight
Small caps — Russell 2000 leading pre-market, rate-sensitive as always
SMART INSIGHT
Here's the disconnect nobody's talking about: futures markets are pricing a 64.5% chance the Fed hikes rates in September — not cuts. Meanwhile consumer sentiment just hit a five-month high and stocks are rallying on de-escalation news.
Cross-currents like that don't resolve quietly. If ISM data comes in hot this morning, the "hike" narrative gains steam fast — and it'll hit growth stocks a lot harder than today's Iran relief rally is helping them.
30-SECOND EDGE
If oil holds below $80 and the 10-year stays under 4.70%: today's risk rally has room to run.
If Palantir's U.S. commercial revenue misses the ~$716M mark tonight: expect the stock's rich valuation to get punished immediately, options are already pricing a 12% swing either way.
OPENING BELL HOT TAKES
Stock Market Today: Futures Gain as Trump Halts Iran Attack — Benzinga breaks down which stocks are moving on the Iran de-escalation.
KOSPI Extends Historic Selloff After Worst Month Since 2008 — Samsung and SK Hynix are down nearly 8% as the AI selloff spreads.
AstraZeneca in Talks With Bristol Myers Squibb on $400B Megadeal — CNBC on the pharma deal that could reshape the sector.
Palantir Earnings Preview: 8 Straight Beats, Options Price 12% Swing — TradingKey on what Wall Street needs to see tonight.
DRAM ETF Sinks Nearly 32% as Margin Calls Hit Memory Stocks — a warning shot for anyone still chasing the AI-memory trade.
That’s all for the day. Go in crush the markets today!
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