Good morning, it’s Monday, October 12, 2026. The bull market turned four today. Its biggest test starts tomorrow.

Futures are modestly green after a record-setting week, and oil is slipping after President Trump said Russia and Ukraine agreed to refrain from targeting each other’s energy infrastructure.

But the bond market is closed for Columbus Day, the 10-year yield sits at 5.24%, and JPMorgan, Goldman, and Citi report before Tuesday’s open.

The setup: Today is quiet on paper. The next 72 hours, with bank earnings Tuesday and CPI Wednesday, will decide whether this rally can keep shrugging off the highest rates in 24 years.

➤ The oil crisis is spreading faster than you think →
(from Golden Portfolio

Markets slightly green; bonds closed. Expect thin volume.

What’s moving the market: Lower crude and earnings optimism. S&P 500 earnings are expected to have jumped by more than 30% in the third quarter, according to LSEG IBES.

TODAY’S CATALYSTS

Most important: With nothing scheduled, headlines drive. Watch oil and any escalation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.

Foreign central banks have cut Treasury holdings to their lowest level since 2012—dumping $82 billion in March alone. At the same time, they hold more gold than Treasuries, for the first time since 1996.

That’s not a trade – it’s a strategic shift. Garrett Goggin has spent 20 years studying gold cycles, and he says: “When central banks move like this, they’re positioning ahead of something big.”

See where smart money is going now – and which gold stocks have massive upside potential

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Earnings season kicks off tomorrow. JPMorgan, Goldman, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo report Tuesday, with Morgan Stanley and Bank of America following the next day.

Expectations are huge. Analysts see aggregate S&P 500 earnings growth of 30.6% for Q3, with energy at 123% and tech at 66.5%.

The banks aren’t walking in with momentum. The S&P 500 banks index is down 9% in the past month amid rising Treasury yields.

That’s the tension. Higher rates can widen lending margins, but they also squeeze borrowers and slow dealmaking.

What this means for investors: Look past the headline EPS beat. What CEOs say about consumer credit and loan demand is your best read on whether 5%+ yields are finally biting.

Crude is lower this morning, and the Middle East isn’t the reason.

Brent dropped to $103 and WTI to $91 after the energy-ceasefire announcement, which followed a US deal for Russia to supply more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel.

The catch: Zelenskiy says he’s still waiting on details, and Russia hasn’t commented.

Meanwhile, the Gulf is heating up. Trump suggested the US may join Saudi Arabia in attacking the Houthis after weekend strikes on Saudi Arabia’s main airport.

For your portfolio: Cheaper oil helps the inflation math ahead of Wednesday. Until the ceasefire is confirmed, treat this dip as a headline, not a trend.

For 50 years, this quiet agreement helped support the dollar-based financial system. On June 9 2024, it expired quietly.

The war in Iran brought its consequences roaring to the forefront. Garrett says this is the kind of setup investors wait decades for.

Watch now and get four specific positions for the coming rally — plus two bonus opportunities.

If yields keep climbing → bonds and CDs stay competitive for income investors; pressure on richly valued growth stocks.

If WTI holds near $90 → relief for airlines and consumers; a headwind for energy, which is driving much of Q3’s profit growth.

If CPI comes in hot → a hotter-than-expected reading could revive rate-hike bets ahead of the Fed’s October 27-28 meeting; rate-sensitive sectors would struggle.

The opportunity: Large-cap banks.

Why now: The group sold off sharply heading into what’s expected to be a strong earnings season. Sentiment is worse than the profit backdrop.

Bull case: Higher rates widen lending margins, and volatile markets lift trading revenue. Clean results could spark a relief rally.

Risk: Rising loan losses if consumers are cracking under 5%+ rates and $90+ oil.

Watch: JPMorgan’s credit-loss provisions and Jamie Dimon’s tone on the consumer.

The 10-year yield recently hit its highest level in 24 years, and stocks have avoided any significant downside even after it breached 5%.

Strong earnings have covered that gap so far. If profits disappoint, there’s no rate cushion underneath.

Watch: Whether yields push higher after Wednesday’s CPI.

Central banks are still buying gold.

China’s central bank bought 21 tonnes in September, its largest monthly purchase in three years. Gold sits at $4,203 despite 5%+ yields that usually pressure it.

When official buyers keep accumulating through high rates, they’re not chasing yield. They’re hedging against paper currencies.

Expected Q3 Earnings Growth (YoY)

Wall Street expects S&P 500 earnings to grow 30.6% this quarter. Energy and tech are carrying most of the load.

That concentration matters. If oil keeps falling, one of this season’s two profit engines loses power.

Stocks enter the week near records, but the next three days matter far more than today’s session. Bank earnings and CPI will tell us whether this rally can keep outrunning 5%+ yields.

We’d stay constructive, but this isn’t the week to chase.

P.S. The Middle East conflict isn't the cause of this shift. It's the catalyst. The support beneath the dollar system is already gone. Position yourself before the market fully prices it in. Click here.