Good morning, it’s Friday, October 9, 2026. Wall Street is getting a second opinion on AI this morning.

S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.83%, after OpenAI’s revenue scare hit chip stocks Thursday. Oil is easing, but the 10-year yield is still sitting near 5.3%.

The setup: Tech wants to bounce. Rates and oil still matter more to your portfolio than one company’s revenue figure.

Delta reports before the bell, and its results clear the way for the unofficial start of earnings season next Tuesday, when the major Wall Street banks report.

➤ Elon’s AI Phone is coming →
(from Stansberry Research)

Tech is bouncing after Thursday’s AI selloff. Expect volatility at 10:00am EST.

What's moving the market: Bloomberg reported that OpenAI expects annualized revenue to reach or exceed $70 billion by year-end, which eased worries that the AI boom is running out of steam. Falling oil prices also helped.

TODAY’S CATALYSTS

Most important: Consumer sentiment. The index is expected to slip to 47.5 from a four-month low of 48.1 in September, and year-ahead inflation expectations in September hit their highest level since June.

Another jump in inflation expectations gives the Fed more cover to hike.

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Reports that OpenAI generated $50 billion in annualized revenue by the end of September, below the widely reported $68 billion figure, hit AI stocks Thursday. The higher estimate reportedly included gross revenue from partners.

The damage was broad. CoreWeave fell more than 7%. Oracle, Intel and Super Micro each lost around 5%, AMD dropped nearly 4%, and Nvidia fell almost 3%. The Nasdaq had its biggest one-day drop since mid-August.

The odd part is that chip demand isn’t the problem. TSMC just reported a 51% jump in quarterly revenue.

The real question is whether the companies buying all those chips can turn them into revenue fast enough.

What this means for investors: Watch whether AI hardware stocks recover all of Thursday’s losses today. A weak bounce would suggest investors are starting to value AI on revenue rather than spending.

President Trump said he no longer wants a deal with Iran, as reports emerged that the U.S. military is preparing for possible strikes, potentially before the midterms.

The oil market reacted fast. Fresh tanker attacks in the Persian Gulf, less traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and production shut-ins from a hurricane approaching the Gulf Coast pushed WTI up 4.8% to $92.52 on Thursday.

Brent is down 0.77% to $103.48 this morning.

Here’s why it matters: oil feeds inflation, and inflation keeps the Fed hiking. The Fed’s minutes showed most officials think another rate increase will likely be appropriate by year-end.

Popular Fox News guest Louis Navellier sat down for a tell-all interview on Elon Musk's little-known AI project in Tennessee.

He reveals why competitors are flying spy planes overhead… and details three little-known stocks (not Tesla) he believes will soar from this $7 trillion shift.

The Full Story here.

If yields hold above 5.3%: Expect more pressure on high-valuation tech. Savers and income investors get better yields.

If oil spikes on Iran strikes: Energy producers benefit. Airlines and consumers take the hit.

If the AI bounce fades: Leadership could keep rotating toward value, energy and dividend payers.

The opportunity: Intermediate-term Treasuries.

Why now: The 10-year yield reached 5.35% Thursday morning, close to its highest level since 2002. Income investors haven’t seen yields like this in more than two decades.

Bull case: If growth slows or the AI trade cracks, bond prices rise and you’ve locked in income.

Risk: Heavy government borrowing and persistent inflation risk could push yields higher still.

Watch: The Fed’s October 27–28 meeting.

One strategist is saying out loud what others are thinking. Panmure Liberum’s Joachim Klement has a 2027 S&P 500 target of 5,000, about 36% below current levels.

He argues hyperscalers’ free cash flow is largely used up while their borrowing costs climb.

That’s one outlier view, but the math behind it is real: AI spending at 5%+ rates is a different business than AI spending at 2%.

Watch: Capex commentary when big tech reports later this month.

Money is rotating, not leaving.

On Thursday, tech fell while energy rose, and breadth is improving underneath the headline indexes. The share of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50- and 200-day moving averages has risen recently.

A rally with more stocks participating tends to last longer than one carried by a few megacaps.

OpenAI Annualized Revenue ($B)

The market had priced in roughly $68 billion and got $50 billion. To hit its $70 billion year-end target, OpenAI needs about 40% growth in one quarter. Thursday’s selloff was investors deciding whether they believe that.

Stocks are bouncing from the OpenAI scare, but 5.3% yields and $100+ Brent are still the main constraints. AI demand is real, and the question has shifted from spending to whether that spending pays off. For now, we’d stay selective and let higher yields pay you to wait.

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