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GOOD MORNING
The S&P just closed above 7,700 for the first time ever. Now Wall Street has to prove it deserves to stay there — with six major earnings reports landing before you finish your coffee.
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Futures Snapshot
S&P 500 | 7,789.25 | +0.31% |
Nasdaq | 29,867.25 | +0.01% |
Dow Jones | 54,410 | +0.26% |
Bitcoin | $64,117 | +0.68% |
Ethereum | $1,871 | +0.11% |
Gold | $4,214.70 | +1.50% |
Oil (Brent) | $76.48 | +0.71% |
VIX | 16.32 | -1.09% |
What's moving the market: Oil deal optimism is doing more work than earnings right now. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could land "today or tomorrow."
Crude fell on the headline. Cheaper oil, calmer inflation math — that's the trade.
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THE BIG STORY
Oil Rolls Over, Stocks Roll On
Tuesday's rally wasn't just tech. Industrials, financials, and materials all joined the S&P's move above 7,700, with the Dow and S&P both notching record closes.
The fuel: easing Iran tensions. The US-Iran conflict has whipsawed oil prices for months — closures, ceasefires, collapses, repeat. Tuesday's move was another leg of that cycle, with Bessent signaling a Hormuz reopening deal could be close.
Why it matters for you: oil near $80 instead of the $90s+ levels seen earlier this year eases pressure on inflation prints, which eases pressure on the Fed. That's the real story behind stocks pushing to records even with yields still sitting near 4.6%.
Watch this: headline risk cuts both ways here. This deal has fallen apart before. A reversal sends oil — and volatility — right back up.
BREAKING NEWS
AMD Beat and Raised. Stock Fell 8% Anyway
AMD posted record revenue Tuesday — $11.5 billion, up 50% year-over-year, beating estimates. Data center revenue more than doubled. Guidance for next quarter came in above Wall Street's number too.
The stock dropped roughly 8% after hours.
The read: expectations had gotten ahead of the print. AMD walked into earnings up 140% year-to-date. A clean beat-and-raise wasn't enough — traders wanted a blowout. Gross margin also came in at 54%, below the 56% some models expected.
SpaceX told a similar story after its own debut earnings: revenue beat, but AI capex jumped sixfold to $18.4 billion, and the stock sank 8-10% in premarket trading.
Same lesson, two stocks: in this market, "beat" isn't the bar anymore. Margin and spending discipline are what move the stock.
EARNINGS PREVIEW
Earnings (Pre-Market)
Uber (UBER) — Street wants $0.83 EPS on $14.24B revenue, up from $0.63/$12.65B a year ago
Shopify (SHOP) — Consensus near $0.37-0.40 EPS on $3.44B revenue, vs. $2.68B last year
Disney (DIS) — Revenue expected up 7.4% y/y; streaming and parks guidance in focus
Eli Lilly (LLY) — Largest name on the calendar; stock sold off ~4.5% heading in on guidance nerves
Novo Nordisk (NVO) — Watching GLP-1 sales momentum and full-year guidance revisions
Circle (CRCL)
Unity (U)
Earnings (After Close)
Western Digital (WDC) — Street wants $3.27 EPS on $3.69B revenue
Sandisk (SNDK) — Watching NAND pricing power
AppLovin (APP)
e.l.f (ELF)
MercadoLibre (MELI)
eBay (EBAY)
Axon (AXON)
Realty Income (O)
Options markets are pricing a wide move in Novo Nordisk. GLP-1 sales trends there tend to spill into the whole health-care trade.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
7:15 AM — ADP Employment (Forecast: 68K, Prior: 98K)
9:00 AM — ISM Services PMI
10:30 AM — EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Expect biggest volatility: 9:00–10:30am window, especially if ADP misses badly ahead of Friday's jobs report.
TRENDING TICKERS
AMD — Beat and raised, sold off anyway. Now the stock traders are debating whether AI growth is cooling.
SPCX (SpaceX) — First earnings as a public company beat estimates, but AI capex spooked the tape ahead of Thursday's lockup expiry.
LLY — Biggest name on today's calendar; sold off into the print on guidance uncertainty.
MOVERS & SHAKERS
Gainers
Watch storage names (WDC, SNDK) into tonight's reports — sector has been running hot on NAND pricing
Watch health care into LLY/NVO reaction once the prints land
Losers
AMD — down roughly 8% post-earnings
SPCX — down 8-10% on AI spending concerns
Micron (MU) — down modestly, dragged by semiconductor sentiment
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SECTORS TO WATCH
Semiconductors — post-AMD reaction bleeding into the group
Health care — Lilly and Novo Nordisk both report before the bell
Energy — oil sliding on Hormuz deal hopes
Consumer/Discretionary — Uber, Shopify, e.l.f., and Disney all report
SMART INSIGHT
Barclays notes 85% of S&P 500 companies have beaten Q2 profit estimates so far, versus a long-run average of 76%. Beats are no longer rare — they're expected.
That's exactly why AMD and SpaceX got punished on clean beats. The bar has moved from "did you beat" to "did you beat by enough to justify the multiple."
If today's names — especially Lilly and Uber — deliver only in-line numbers, don't be surprised if the market treats them like misses.
30-SECOND EDGE
If oil breaks below $78 on a confirmed Hormuz deal: expect a fast rotation into rate-sensitive sectors — small caps, homebuilders, regional banks.
If the deal talk stalls: oil snaps back and yields firm up, pressuring the same names.
OPENING BELL HOT TAKES
AMD topped every estimate and still dropped 7% — Yahoo Finance
That’s all for the day. Go in crush the markets today!
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