Sunday, October 11, 2026
☀️ GOOD AFTERNOON
The stock market and the American consumer are reading two different newspapers.
The S&P 500 just finished its best week in a month, 1.2% from a record. On Friday, consumer sentiment fell to a five-month low.
Today: The Fed signals patience, one revised OpenAI number shakes the AI trade, and oil gets hit from both sides of the world.
➤ Chaikin: Buy this stock by Oct. 20 →
(from Chaikin Analytics)
THE BIG STORY
The Fed Says Patience. The Bond Market Isn’t Sure.
Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting, released Wednesday, show most officials believe another rate increase is likely before year-end. They also indicated no need to move in October, with some officials favoring patience and a possible December move.
Traders agree. CME FedWatch puts the odds of an October hike at roughly 17%, versus about 84% for a hike in December.
The bond market had a rougher week. The 10-year yield topped 5.36% Wednesday, a 24-year high, before a stronger auction calmed things. It finished Friday at 5.24%.
Why it matters: Yields at these levels reach everything you own. Wednesday’s spike pushed the daily mortgage-rate average to 7.63%, the highest since October 2023, and hit banks, utilities, REITs, and other dividend payers.
What we're watching: Wednesday’s September CPI report. It lands just before the Fed’s blackout period and could move expectations for the late-October meeting.
In partnership with Chaikin Analytics
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Elon became the world's first trillionaire – largely on dreams of SpaceX dominating AI for years to come.
But 60-year Wall Street legend Marc Chaikin just issued a warning to AI investors. "Legacy AI stocks like SpaceX are in for a massive shock. I'd run."
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A $20 Billion Correction Shakes the AI Trade
On Thursday, the Financial Times reported OpenAI’s annualized revenue was approaching $50 billion at the end of September. The market had been carrying a figure near $70 billion.
The reaction was swift. The Nasdaq fell 1.25% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index sank 3.4%. Nvidia fell almost 3%, AMD about 4%, and Broadcom, which builds a custom chip with OpenAI, 4.35%. Oracle, whose OpenAI cloud contract has been reported near $300 billion, fell close to 6%.
Why it matters: The gap was mostly accounting. The higher figure included gross revenue from OpenAI’s partners, which OpenAI doesn’t count but Anthropic does. OpenAI also told investors it expects to reach at least $70 billion by Dec. 31.
The bigger lesson: the data centers and chip orders behind the AI boom rest on a few private-company figures, and those figures feed straight into the stocks that dominate index funds and retirement accounts.
What we're watching: ASML reports Wednesday and TSMC on Thursday. Their order books will tell you whether chip demand is cooling or whether Thursday was a sentiment scare.
Oil Gets Hit From Both Sides
Trump ruled out strikes on Iran before the November 3 midterms, citing “productive” talks. That pulled Brent back from near $110 to about $105, even as Iran has hit at least one tanker in the Strait of Hormuz every day for three weeks.
Then the weather turned. Hurricane Isaias, now a Category 3, forced producers to shut in about 1.5 million barrels a day, nearly 72% of US Gulf of Mexico oil output.
Why it matters: The Gulf is also home to a large portion of the US refining fleet, and Isaias could affect refinery operations. That means gasoline, diesel, and heating oil, which flow directly into the CPI the Fed is watching.
What we're watching: Damage reports from the Alabama-Florida coast on Monday. One consulting firm estimates about 9 million barrels of production could be lost through the storm.
The Ticker
Stocks: The S&P 500 rose 1.2% for the week and is up 14.1% for the year. Small caps lagged: the Russell 2000 fell 0.9%.
Treasuries: The 10-year yield was down 3.5 basis points on the week, its largest weekly decline in two months.
Gold: Gold hit a two-month low Wednesday, pressured by a strong dollar and rising yields.
MONEY & ECONOMY
Consumers Are Losing Confidence Again
The University of Michigan’s preliminary October sentiment index came in at 46.3, below the 48 consensus. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7%.
Investor takeaway: Consumers are spending as though inflation is sticking around. That makes the Fed’s December hike harder to skip.
Mortgage Rates Hit a Three-Year High
Freddie Mac’s 30-year average reached 7.28% on Oct. 1, up from 6.34% a year earlier. Daily averages climbed further this week as yields spiked.
Investor takeaway: If you’re downsizing or helping a child buy, the 10-year yield, not the Fed, is setting your rate..
CORPORATE RADAR
PepsiCo — Beat third-quarter estimates with $2.34 adjusted EPS, but cut its 2026 core EPS growth forecast to 2.5%–3.5%. International growth carried a lagging North American business.
Delta — Cut its full-year EPS outlook to $5.10–$5.60 from $6.50–$7.50, citing a $6 billion fuel-cost surge. Demand remains strong; jet fuel is the problem.
Devon Energy — Sold its Eagle Ford assets to Crescent Energy for $4.2 billion to focus on the Permian after its $58 billion Coterra merger.
ExxonMobil — Blocked a proposed settlement with Kazakhstan over a disputed $5 billion fine at the Kashagan field.
In partnership with Stansberry Research
He Put Half His $9 Billion Into One Unusual AI Stock
One billionaire put over half his $9 billion fund into one unusual AI stock — then bought more shares nearly every day for 61 straight trading days.
It's not Nvidia... a chipmaker... or a cloud giant. Instead, it owns the assets the entire AI boom depends on...
And Trump signed emergency executive orders to protect them. Right now it's trading at a rare discount... The same kind that's previously turned $10,000 into $55,000. In just over 12 months
AROUND THE WORLD
France: The 10-year French bond yield briefly topped 5% last week, the highest since 2002, on fiscal and political concerns. It’s the eurozone’s weak spot heading into the 2027 election.
Europe: EU gas operators warned that storage could fall from 73% now to 29% by end-March, even with record LNG imports.
China: Beijing restarted fuel exports after Golden Week, approving about 29 million barrels of shipments for October, below August–September flows.
Japan: The yen strengthened after Bank of Japan board member Ayano Sato, who opposed September’s hike, signaled openness to more tightening.
THE NUMBER
That’s the Senior Citizens League’s latest estimate for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment.
It would add roughly $75 to the $2,086 average monthly benefit. This year’s COLA was 2.8%.
The official number arrives Wednesday at 8:30 a.m., alongside CPI. A bigger COLA sounds good, but it reflects the higher inflation you’ve already paid.
Watch the other side of the ledger. Medicare Part B premiums, typically deducted from Social Security checks, are usually announced in mid-November.
ON INVESTOR’S RADAR
Monday — Columbus Day; bond market closed, stocks open
Tuesday — Bank earnings kick off; existing home sales
Wednesday — September CPI and 2027 Social Security COLA
Thursday — Retail sales, PPI, jobless claims
Friday — Eurozone CPI
Earnings: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo (Tue); Bank of America, Morgan Stanley (Wed); ASML (Wed); TSMC (Thu).
The Main Event: Wednesday’s CPI. A hot print revives October hike talk. Thursday’s retail sales, expected up 0.3% after 1.2% last month, will show whether spending is still holding up.
CHART OF THE DAY
Consumers Are Sliding Back Toward Record Lows
Sentiment hit a record low of 44.8 in May, then rebounded to 55.2 in July before the Iran conflict drove gas prices higher. It has fallen three straight months since.
Why it matters: Sentiment is 16% below February, before the Iran conflict began. The stock market is at records. The people who buy companies’ products aren’t.
THE WATCHLIST
JPM — Reports Tuesday. Commentary on credit quality will show how consumers are coping with 7% mortgages.
TSM — Reports Thursday. The cleanest read on whether Thursday’s AI selloff was justified.
CVX — Shut in production at five Gulf facilities ahead of Isaias. Watch how quickly output returns.
IN OTHER NEWS
Iraq: Devalued its dinar 14.5% as the Hormuz disruption drains oil revenue.
Shipping: Supertanker rates hit a record $1.4 million a day.
Russia: Ukraine said its drones hit Russia’s largest refinery, the 4th attack on Russian refineries this month.
Diesel: Trump said Putin agreed to supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel to global markets immediately.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Stocks are pricing a Fed that waits and an AI boom that keeps going. Consumers are pricing $100 oil.
Wednesday’s CPI will show which one is right. We’ll be watching yields, chip stocks, and Gulf refineries.
See you before the bell Monday.
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