MARKET OPEN
Good morning, it’s Thursday, November 5, 2026. The election rally is entering day two, but it's no longer lifting everything.
The Dow surged 1,569 points (+3%) yesterday, its best post-midterm session since 1982, after Democrats took both chambers and President Trump said he'd accept the results. This morning, Dow futures are up again while Nasdaq 100 futures slip.
The reason: Texas. A new governor who campaigned on a data-center moratorium has put the AI-infrastructure trade on defense, and chip stocks are extending losses premarket.
The setup: Blue chips, small caps and anything helped by falling oil could lead again today. The pressure sits with AI power and data-center names.
➤ Don’t panic when the AI bubble bursts. →
(from Golden Portfolio)
FUTURES SNAPSHOT
S&P 500 | 7,731.75 | +0.16% |
Nasdaq | 28,421.00 | -0.51% |
Dow Jones | 53,810.00 | +0.57% |
Bitcoin | $80,231.64 | +0.18% |
Ethereum | $2,416.88 | +0.07% |
Gold | $4,136.80 | +1.57% |
Oil (Brent) | $96.17 | +1.64% |
VIX | 16.82 | +1.33% |
Markets split ahead of 8:30 a.m. jobless claims.
What's moving the market: A second day of rotation out of chips and into economically sensitive stocks, plus oil's fourth straight decline.
TODAY’S CATALYSTS
7:30 AM — Challenger job cuts (October)
8:30 AM — Initial jobless claims (est. ~197K) + Q3 productivity
8:50 AM — Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack speaks
9:10 AM — Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin speaks
Before open — ConocoPhillips, Cigna, Duke Energy, Southern
After close — Airbnb, Cloudflare, Monster Beverage
Most important: Hammack at 8:50. She preferred a rate hike at the October meeting, so a hawkish tone could stall the bond rally that helped fuel yesterday's gains.
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THE BIG STORY
Texas Just Put the AI Buildout on Notice
The biggest market loser of the midterms wasn't a party. It was the data center.
Democrat Gina Hinojosa unseated Texas Gov. Greg Abbott after pledging an immediate moratorium on new data centers. Wells Fargo estimates Texas holds about 27% of planned U.S. data-center capacity.
Ohio's new governor, Amy Acton, proposed a conditional moratorium too, which Morgan Stanley says puts a 10-gigawatt Nvidia-linked project at risk. Goldman Sachs expects new restrictions in states holding roughly 45% of planned U.S. capacity.
The market's verdict was precise. Vistra fell 14% and Vertiv 13% yesterday, while Nvidia slipped about 3%.
Chipmakers sell globally. A Texas power plant can't relocate.
What this means for investors: This looks more like delay than cancellation. The most exposed names are local — power producers, cooling suppliers and neoclouds — not chip designers. Nvidia's Nov. 17 earnings call is the next real test.
BREAKING NEWS
Oil's War Premium is Evaporating
Crude is falling for a fourth straight day, and the driver is political.
WTI plunged more than 8% yesterday to $88.12, its lowest close since Aug. 31, after Vice President JD Vance posted that the Iran war cost Republicans the election. Chuck Schumer, the likely next Senate majority leader, has vowed to push to end the conflict.
Oil futures are down more than 14% this week. WTI trades near $87 this morning, Brent near $94.
The catch: The new Congress isn't seated until January, and Eurasia Group warns escalation could send Brent to $110–$125. ConocoPhillips reports before the bell, the first read on how producers are handling the drop.
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PORTFOLIO INSIGHTS
If Texas freezes permits → pressure on power producers, cooling suppliers and data-center developers; global chipmakers are less exposed.
If oil keeps falling → relief for consumers, airlines and inflation; pressure on energy producers' cash flow.
If yields keep easing → supportive for dividend payers, small caps and gold
TODAY’S BIG IDEA
The Post-Midterm Broadening Trade
The opportunity: Equal-weight and small-cap exposure over mega-cap tech.
Why now: Money is leaving AI infrastructure for domestic, economically sensitive stocks. Russell 2000 futures are up while Nasdaq futures fall.
Bull case: The S&P 500 has gained an average 15.5% in the six months after the last 14 midterms, per Edward Jones. Gridlock limits fiscal surprises.
Risk: A weak payrolls report Friday, or an Iran escalation, could flip the mood fast.
Watch: Whether the Russell 2000 keeps beating the Nasdaq 100 through Friday's jobs data.
RISK RADAR
A Hawkish Fed
Investors are cheering lower yields, but the 10-year still sits near 4.9%.
Hammack wanted a hike in October, and the Bank of England is expected to raise rates today for the first time in more than three years.
Watch: Whether Hammack or Barkin put a December hike back on the table.
THE WATCHLIST
QCOM -9% premarket — Handset chip sales missed, overshadowing data-center growth. At about 16.8x forward earnings, watch whether value buyers step in.
APP higher pre-market — Revenue grew 55% and Q4 guidance topped estimates. A test of whether AI names outside infrastructure can hold up.
COP reports before the open — The first major producer to report after oil's 14% weekly drop. Listen for buyback and capex commentary.
FOLLOW THE MONEY
Money is rotating, not leaving.
The Dow gained 3% yesterday versus 1.44% for the Nasdaq. Hospital owners, dollar stores and solar led, while AI infrastructure, defense and Trump Media lagged.
Gold is up another 1.6% this morning to $4,139 as falling yields cut the cost of holding it.
CHART OF THE DAY: WEDNESDAY’S RALLY SKIPPED THE AI POWER TRADE
Yesterday's rally was broad, but it had a hole in the middle. Dollar stores and blue chips surged while the companies that power and cool data centers posted double-digit losses.
That split, not the index level, is the story to track this week.
🔔 OPENING BELL HOT TAKES
OpenAI pledged to pay for its data centers' power after the election spotlighted voter backlash over AI's grid costs. CNBC
Vance's post blaming the Iran war for GOP losses deepened Wednesday's roughly $8-a-barrel oil drop. Axios
The Dow's 1,569-point jump was its biggest post-midterm gain since 1982, per CFRA Research. CNN
BofA's Michael Hartnett had warned a Democratic Senate plus a Texas governorship could mean a 10%+ slump into year-end. CNBC
Qualcomm is on track to shed about $17.5B in market value if premarket losses hold. Reuters
THE BOTTOM LINE
The midterms removed political uncertainty and added a specific new risk to the AI trade. Falling oil and lower yields support the broader market, but Fed hawks and Friday's payrolls can still change the tone.
We'd stay constructive on the broadening trade while keeping AI-infrastructure exposure sized for permit headlines.
P.S. Whitney believes what's happening today could reset the financial system now that America has voted. If he’s even half-right, it's going to have a huge impact on your money and your future. Get the details here...