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GOOD MORNING
Six days of earnings chaos and the Dow still can't stop hitting new highs.
Wednesday's record-close, record-high circus somehow made room for a rocket company crashing 11% while beating estimates. Today it's Warner Bros.
Discovery's turn in the barrel, and the Strait of Hormuz might actually reopen before your coffee gets cold.
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Futures Snapshot
S&P 500 | 7,761.75 | +0.16% |
Nasdaq | 29,494.25 | -0.41% |
Dow Jones | 54,655 | +0.30% |
Bitcoin | $64,612.43 | +0.80% |
Ethereum | $1,905.56 | -0.51% |
Gold | $4,334.20 | +0.67% |
Oil (Brent) | $75.45 | +0.31% |
VIX | 15.92 | +0.70% |
What's moving the market: The Dow closed at a fresh record Wednesday for its fifth straight positive session, even as the S&P snapped a four-day win streak and the Nasdaq dropped 0.83% on AI-valuation jitters.
Futures are barely moving this morning — everyone's waiting on jobless claims and another wave of earnings.
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THE BIG STORY
Iran and Oman Are Circling a Hormuz Deal
Iran said Wednesday it reached an agreement with Oman on a proposed shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, with a joint statement reportedly in final drafting stages.
This matters because roughly a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade normally moves through that waterway, and it's been a mess since the crisis kicked off in February. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said a deal could come within days.
Why it matters for stocks: Oil has already been sliding on de-escalation hopes, and that's dragged the 10-year yield down from an 18-month high of 4.75% to 4.61% in three straight sessions. Lower yields have been rocket fuel for the record-high run in equities.
The catch: Iran insists the strait won't return to its "pre-war status," and Tehran says the deal only holds "if certain third parties do not obstruct this process." Translation: don't price in a done deal yet.
Watch: Any headline confirming (or blowing up) the joint statement could move oil and yields fast — and yields have been the tape's steering wheel all week.
BREAKING NEWS
Earnings Are Splitting Winners From Losers — Brutally
Wednesday's session was a case study in how unforgiving this market has gotten. Eli Lilly jumped roughly 7% on a blowout beat and raised guidance. Disney added nearly 3%. Arista Networks popped 9%. Shopify ripped 29% higher.
Meanwhile AMD fell more than 8% despite beating on revenue by 50%, and SpaceX slid over 10% on its first-ever earnings report as a public company — with a lockup expiration today freeing roughly 900 million shares to hit the market.
Why it matters: At an S&P 500 RSI near 80, this market has zero patience for "good, but not good enough." AMD's selloff on a beat is the clearest tell yet — investors are now demanding profitable AI growth, not just growth. If today's reporters (see below) don't clear a high bar, expect the same treatment.
Sector read: Healthcare quietly emerged as the surprise winner Wednesday. Money is rotating into XLV names as tech gets picked apart stock by stock.
EARNINGS PREVIEW
Earnings (Pre-Market)
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) — Street expects a Q2 loss as revenue declines roughly 5% amid ongoing Paramount-deal antitrust delays
Conoco Phillips (COP)
DATADOG (DDOG)
Celsius (CELH)
Earnings (After Close)
Airbnb (ABNB) — Street models $1.19 EPS (+15.5% YoY); Q2 revenue guided to $3.54–$3.60B
Lyft (LYFT) — Street models $0.39 EPS on $1.81B revenue (+13.7% YoY); gross bookings seen near $5.37B
Draft Kings (DKNG)
theTradeDesk (TTD)
MP Materials (MP)
Options markets are pricing a mid-single-digit percentage move in both Airbnb and Lyft. Given how brutally the market punished AMD's "good but not perfect" print, in-line guidance may not be enough for either name today.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
7:30 AM — Challenger Job Cuts (July)
8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (forecast 203K, prior 197K)
8:30 AM — Continuing Jobless Claims (prior 1.782M)
8:30 AM — Nonfarm Productivity, Q2 Prelim (forecast +0.7%, prior +0.3%)
8:30 AM — Wholesale Inventories (prior +0.3%)
Expect biggest volatility: 8:30–9:30am window, especially if claims come in hot ahead of Friday's July nonfarm payrolls report.
TRENDING TICKERS
SpaceX (SPCX) — First lockup expiration since its IPO frees over 900 million shares for trading today, adding fresh supply pressure after Wednesday's 11% earnings-day drop.
AMD — Still digesting Wednesday's 8%+ selloff despite a 50% revenue beat; traders are debating whether this is a buy-the-dip setup or a valuation reset.
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) — Reports before the bell with the Paramount acquisition still tangled up in an antitrust trial delayed to March 2027.
MOVERS & SHAKERS
Gainers
Eli Lilly (LLY) +6.5%
Wynn Resorts (WYNN) +5%
Circle Internet Group +5%
Losers
AMD -8.5%
SpaceX (SPCX) -11%
Uber (UBER) -6%
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SECTORS TO WATCH
Healthcare — Rotation underway as Lilly, Amgen, Humana lead
Media — WBD earnings and Paramount-deal overhang
Energy — Oil sliding on Hormuz de-escalation hopes
Travel — Airbnb reports into World Cup-driven booking strength
Semiconductors — AMD selloff still rippling through the group
SMART INSIGHT
Wall Street trimmed odds of a September Fed hike to roughly 57%, down from 67% just a day earlier, as falling oil prices ease inflation pressure.
If claims come in soft this morning: Rate-cut-adjacent hopes get another leg, and rate-sensitive small caps could catch a bid heading into Friday's jobs report.
30-SECOND EDGE
If the 10-year yield keeps falling toward 4.50%: Growth and small-cap names get a tailwind. If a Hormuz deal headline breaks and oil pops instead of drops: Expect that trade to reverse fast.
OPENING BELL HOT TAKES
Jamie Dimon warned hidden borrowing — not just margin debt — is raising the risk of a market disruption. Benzinga
Elon Musk said SpaceX will exclusively use Nvidia chips for AI services, lifting NVDA even as SPCX slid. CNBC
Polymarket traders put a 69% probability on the S&P 500 opening higher Thursday. Benzinga
Qatar is pushing for a regional consensus on any new Hormuz shipping arrangement, not just a US-Iran-Oman deal. Al Jazeera
Friday's July nonfarm payrolls report is quietly becoming the week's real main event, with ADP already showing a slowdown in private hiring. Yahoo Finance
That’s all for the day. Go in crush the markets today!
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