Good morning, it’s {{current_date_full_with_day}}. Markets want you to feel good about a trade truce that hasn't been signed yet.

Futures are up across the board this morning. Oil is sliding for a fourth straight day. And Wall Street is treating Wednesday's Trump-Xi summit like it's already a done deal, even though nobody's signed anything.

The setup: risk is on, but the good mood is fragile. There's a Fed speech today, and the bond market is still digesting a rate hike that matters more to your retirement income than any headline about China.

In today's newsletter:

What's moving the market: Trade optimism ahead of Wednesday's summit, plus falling oil, is doing more work than any single data point this morning.

TODAY’S CATALYSTS

Most important: Goolsbee's tone. The Fed just delivered its first hike since 2023. Any hint of "more coming" matters a lot more to your fixed income than anything in futures today.

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Trump and Xi meet in Washington Wednesday, and markets are already pricing in good news.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China's Vice Premier He Lifeng wrapped talks in New York Sunday, calling the trade and AI discussions productive. Chinese stocks rallied on it — the CSI AI Index led gains, up over 1%.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is expected at the state dinner, a signal chip policy is on the table. Goldman Sachs's read: both sides want stability, but a broad deal is unlikely.

What this means for investors: the rally is built on tone, not terms. If Wednesday produces vague "continued dialogue" instead of specifics on tariffs or chip exports, expect some of today's optimism to unwind fast, especially in China-exposed semis.

The Fed's first rate hike since 2023 is still working through the bond market. The 10-year yield is sitting near multi-month highs.

That's good news if you're buying new CDs or Treasuries. It's not great news if you're holding long-duration bonds or rate-sensitive stocks bought before the move. Utilities and REITs have been among the weakest performers.

If you live off fixed income, this is the week to check what your existing bond ladder actually yields versus what's available right now.

If yields keep climbing → new CDs and Treasuries get more attractive; existing bonds and rate-sensitive stocks (utilities, REITs) stay under pressure.

If Wednesday delivers real tariff relief → import-heavy retailers and China-exposed industrials could catch a bid.

If oil keeps falling → relief at the pump and for airlines; a drag on energy-heavy income portfolios.

This week is really about how much of today's optimism survives contact with Wednesday's actual meeting.

Why now: The Fed's hike just made "boring" fixed income meaningfully more competitive — new short-term yields now beat a lot of dividend stocks.

Bull case: You lock in income without stock-market risk while the summit outcome is still unknown.

Risk: If this hike turns out to be a one-off, yields drift back down and you're reinvesting later at worse rates.

Watch: The 10-year yield, and any rate-path hints from this week's Fed speeches.

Stocks are celebrating a summit that hasn't happened and shrugging off a Fed that just hiked for the first time in three years.

Risk-on equities and rising yields don't always coexist peacefully.

Watch: whether the 10-year keeps climbing even if Wednesday goes well. That would mean rates, not trade headlines, are actually driving this market.

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Money is rotating toward Chinese tech ahead of Wednesday. The CSI AI Index jumped over 1%, outpacing broader Chinese benchmarks, as investors bet the summit eases chip and AI-policy tensions.

Worth watching stateside too — U.S. semiconductor names with China exposure tend to move in sympathy.

China's market is telling you exactly how optimistic it is about Wednesday. The CSI AI Index is outrunning every broad benchmark, which means the trade-optimism bet is concentrated in AI and chips specifically, not the broader Chinese economy.

Markets are pricing in a summit that hasn't happened and a Fed hike that's still working through the bond market. If Wednesday delivers vague language instead of specifics, some of today's optimism could reverse fast — especially in China-exposed names.

For income-focused portfolios, the more durable story this week isn't the summit — it's what your bond ladder yields now versus six months ago.

That’s all for the day. Go in crush the markets today!

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