Good morning, it’s {{current_date_full_with_day}}. Stocks are trying to rally. The bond market isn't letting them.

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.19% overnight, its highest since 2007, while Nasdaq futures climb on a fresh wave of AI deals.

The setup: Tech may open green, but every Fed speaker today is a chance for yields to grab the wheel again.

In today's newsletter:

Green on AI, capped by yields. Expect chop after 8:30 a.m. EST.

What's moving the market: Chipmakers AMD, Marvell, Cerebras and Intel are each up about 2% premarket, while Brent above $100 and a 5.1% 10-year are keeping gains in check.

TODAY’S CATALYSTS

Most important: The 10:00 a.m. inflation expectations number. Economists expect households to see 4.6% inflation over the next year. A hotter reading strengthens the case for an October hike.

Last summer, I wrote: “I fully expect our holdings to keep getting acquired by larger companies.” That was August 27th.

Seven months later, a major bought one of my picks and it popped 79% overnight… and eleven days after that, a second pick was taken out at a 67% premium — again, overnight. That's not luck.

It’s the kind of prediction other so-called gold analysts miss because they don’t understand gold the way I do. The acquisition phase of this gold bull market came right on schedule — and the only question left is: who's next?

Go here to see my top three buyout targets.

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The 10-year Treasury yield touched 19-year highs this week, and the 30-year reached 22-year highs.

Three things pushed it there: a stronger-than-expected PMI, weak demand at a $70 billion five-year note auction, and New York Fed President John Williams saying the Fed would likely need to hike again this year.

Traders now see a 71% chance of an October hike, up from about 50% earlier this week.

Stocks have noticed. The S&P 500 hasn't made a new high since August, stuck between 7,600 and 7,800, and just 29% of its stocks trade above their 50-day moving averages.

What this means for investors: Higher yields raise the bar for every stock you own. If you hold richly valued growth names, expect them to swing hardest on today's Fed commentary.

Akamai is up 21% premarket after landing a seven-year, $11.6 billion cloud deal with Anthropic. Anthropic can add up to $9 billion more, for a potential total near $20 billion.

Anthropic also gets a warrant for up to about 5% of Akamai at $111.33 a share, with most of it vesting only if spending grows.

The catch: Akamai expects about $5.5 billion in capex to deliver, including $1.7 billion more this year for components like memory.

Why it matters: A company Wall Street treated as a slow-growth content-delivery business is suddenly an AI infrastructure play. That's the kind of repricing investors are hunting for across the sector.

If the 10-year holds above 5% → pressure on long-duration growth stocks; savers can lock in the best Treasury yields since 2007.

If a U.S.–Iran Hormuz deal comes together → oil could fall quickly, helping airlines and consumers while pressuring energy producers.

If the Fed hikes in October → real estate, utilities and small caps could struggle; the dollar likely stays firm.

For 50 years, this quiet agreement helped support the dollar-based financial system. On June 9 2024, it expired quietly.

The war in Iran brought its consequences roaring to the forefront. Garrett says this is the kind of setup investors wait decades for.

Watch now and get four specific positions for the coming rally — plus two bonus opportunities.

The opportunity: Intermediate-term Treasuries in an IRA or taxable account.

Why now: Schwab expects the 10-year to generally hold between 4.5% and 5%, with risks leaning higher. You're being paid well to wait.

Bull case: If growth cools or oil drops, yields fall and bond prices rise. You collect income plus a gain.

Risk: Sticky inflation could push yields higher first. Long bonds swing hardest.

Watch: Today's inflation expectations and next Wednesday's PCE report.

Markets are cheering reports that U.S. and Iranian negotiators are exploring a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

But Saudi Arabia intercepted six Houthi ballistic missiles Thursday, and tanker loadings from its Red Sea port of Yanbu haven't fully resumed. U.S. diesel prices also climbed to record levels.

Watch: Brent near $106. A stalled deal hits while oil is already above $100.

Money is quietly flowing back into bitcoin.

Spot bitcoin ETPs saw their biggest two-day net inflows since November 2024 on Monday and Tuesday, and bitcoin now trades above the average ETP buyer's cost basis of about $83,000.

Translation: the typical fund holder is back in profit. That's notable with 10-year yields at 2007 levels, a backdrop that usually punishes speculative assets.

10-Year Government Bond Yields (Sept 25, 2026)

U.S., Australian and New Zealand 10-year yields are all above 5%. Japan's 10-year hit 3.115% this week, its highest since 1996.

When borrowing costs rise everywhere at once, there's nowhere cheap for global capital to hide, and that keeps pressure on stock valuations.

Stocks want to follow AI higher, but the bond market is setting the speed limit. With 10-year yields at 2007 levels and an October hike now the base case, today's Fed speakers matter more than today's headlines.

Stay invested, but let 5% yields do some of the work for the income side of your portfolio.

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