Trump Says No Deal & Bonds Hit a 2007 High

For 19 years, a 5% 10-year Treasury yield was a history lesson. This week, it was just Thursday.

Stocks still finished higher. That tension is the whole story right now.

Today: Bonds hit a 2007 high, Oracle's flagship AI project hits a wall, and Trump turns down Iran's offer to reopen Hormuz.

Here's what matters this weekend.

Your Sunday in just 5 minutes:

In partnership with Chaikin Analytics: Move your money OUT of SpaceX (and into this stock) by Sept. 29th. Go here for the company name and ticker – and Marc’s full prediction – free.

The 10-year Treasury yield, which drives mortgage rates, jumped to 5.23% Friday, its highest since 2007. It started the year at 4.15%.

Wednesday was the break. The yield rose 15 basis points in one session after S&P Global data showed business activity accelerating at its fastest pace since July 2021.

This follows the Fed's first hike in three years. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4% on Sept. 16, and Chair Kevin Warsh said "Inflation is too high and has been for too long."

Why It Matters: Futures now put the odds of another hike in October at about 64%. For you, the tradeoff is real. A 10-year Treasury paying north of 5% is now a legitimate competitor to stocks, especially for the part of your portfolio meant to be protected, not grown.

What We're Watching: Wednesday's PCE inflation report and Friday's jobs data. Hot numbers make October's hike close to a lock.

In partnership with Chaikin Analytics

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Oracle sent a force majeure notice to a Blue Owl unit developing a large New Mexico data center, citing possible delays in securing power, Reuters reported.

The project, called Jupiter, is a 2.5-gigawatt campus tied to the Stargate buildout. Its biggest setback came in July, when state officials rejected a natural gas pipeline extension meant to feed it.

Oracle isn't walking away. The notice lets it keep paying Blue Owl the lower development-stage rent for longer. Oracle called such notices commonplace for projects this size, while Blue Owl said its financial commitments are unchanged.

Why It Matters: The AI trade's constraint is shifting from chips to power and financing. The same week, AMD topped a $1 trillion market cap for the first time. Markets are rewarding the companies selling AI hardware while scrutinizing who pays for the buildings.

What We're Watching: Oracle shares are down about 55% over the past year. Watch whether lenders tighten terms on other AI data center projects.

Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks within seven days if the U.S. lifts its naval blockade, waives oil sanctions and agrees to a ceasefire that includes Lebanon.

Trump said no on Saturday. The Wall Street Journal reported he has told aides he expects bombing to resume after the November midterms.

Oil had cooled during the talks. WTI settled at $92.41 Friday, down 7.9% on the week, while Brent finished flat at $104.32.

Why It Matters: Oil is setting interest rates right now. Higher energy prices push up inflation expectations, which push up yields, which push up your mortgage. Brent is still up more than 71% this year.

What We're Watching: Monday's oil open. The weekend rejection could erase Friday's relief quickly.

Markets (week ending Friday)

Stocks: The S&P 500 ended about 0.7% below its August record, while small caps finished the week lower.

Microsoft: Shares gained 3.7% Friday after new Copilot features, including a coding tool and an always-on AI agent.

Gold: Down about 6.7% over the past month as rate-hike bets and a stronger dollar weigh.

Freddie Mac's average 30-year rate hit 7.03%, the first time above 7% since January 2025. Existing home sales fell 2% in August to a 3.98 million annual pace.

Investor takeaway: If you're downsizing or buying with cash, you have leverage. Sellers offered concessions in nearly 45% of sales over the three months through August, per Redfin.

Estimates for the 2027 COLA now range from 3.4% to 3.6%, up from 2.8% this year. AARP's 3.6% forecast would add about $75 a month for the average retiree.

Investor takeaway: The 2027 Medicare Part B premium is currently projected at $209.50, which will absorb part of that raise. The final number arrives after September CPI on Oct. 14.

Congress passed a stopgap extending funding through Dec. 11, so the Oct. 1 fiscal deadline passes quietly. The real fight moves past the midterms.

In partnership with Stansberry Research

Whitney Tilson shocked the nation on 60 Minutes when he accused a major company of poisoning its customers.

The investigation won an Emmy and the stock fell nearly 80%. (He also called the housing crisis and the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers). Now, he's releasing his next big story.

He says the day after our upcoming midterm elections, America will enter a period of economic change unlike anything we've seen in decades. And most investors are unprepared for what's coming. For the full presentation, go here.

48.1. That's the University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment reading for September.

It sits below the index's level at the start of all six recessions since 1978. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 4.0% to 4.6%.

Meanwhile, businesses just posted their fastest activity growth since 2021 and the S&P is near a record. Siebert's Mark Malek summed it up: "Businesses are cooking. Households are sweating."

Sentiment is a poor timing tool. But if gloomy households start spending less, earnings forecasts will follow.

The Main Event: Friday's jobs report. It's the only labor report before the Fed's late-October meeting, with forecasts calling for 100,000 jobs, down from 162,000. A strong number plus hot PCE would likely cement an October hike.

Most of this year's move happened in the last two weeks. The yield went from roughly 4.95% on Sept. 21 to 5.23% by Friday.

Why it matters: Every leg higher resets what "safe" pays. For a retiree-focused portfolio, locking in 5% income is now an option that didn't exist in January.

Stocks keep climbing on AI while bonds price in a Fed that isn't done. Only one of them can be right about next year.

This week's PCE and jobs data will decide how much longer that standoff lasts. We'll be watching yields, oil and small caps.

See you before the bell Monday.

- Market Open Team