Good morning, it’s {{current_date_full_with_day}}. Oil is quietly doing the Fed's job for it.

Crude fell below $90 a barrel, extending losses into a fifth session after President Trump said US officials had a very good meeting with Iranian envoys.

The 10-year yield sits near 5%, and futures are flat ahead of tomorrow's Trump-Xi summit.

The setup: Cheaper energy helps bonds and growth stocks. A hawkish Fed voice this morning could undo it.

In today's newsletter:

Futures were little changed after the Nasdaq Composite hit a fresh record, supported by AI infrastructure gains.

What's moving the market: Oil lower on Iran diplomacy, yields near 5%, and a heavy morning of Fed speakers.

TODAY’S CATALYSTS

Most important: Jefferson at 10:20. Markets are pricing one more 25-basis-point hike in December, followed by more hikes into 2027. Any pushback on that path moves bonds fast.

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Trump called the three-hour meeting with Iranian representatives "very good," adding that another meeting was planned. Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline also resumed operations.

This matters because oil is why rates went up. Last week the Fed approved its first rate hike since 2023, aimed at combating inflation brought on by spiraling oil prices.

Cheaper crude weakens the case for the next hike.

But the headlines cut both ways. Iranian sources denied reports that the country is ready to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. ends its blockade.

What this means for investors: Watch crude more closely than the Fed podium. If oil holds under $90, the December hike case weakens. If talks stall, the war premium comes back quickly.

Don't expect a grand bargain. The most likely deliverable is a one-year extension of the October 2025 Busan trade truce, keeping Chinese rare-earth export controls eased.

The stock-specific angles are real, though. China said after the May meeting that it would buy 200 Boeing jets, and longer-running talks could involve as many as 500 737 MAX aircraft.

Chips are the other swing factor. Nvidia may be particularly headline-sensitive, with Jensen Huang expected at the state dinner.

Expect positioning today and volatility tomorrow.

If oil keeps sliding → Less pressure for a December hike; relief for bonds, airlines, and consumers. Pressure on energy producers.

If the 10-year breaks 5% → Pressure on high-valuation growth stocks and REITs. Better entry yields for income investors.

If the truce is extended → Supportive for semis and Boeing. Easier rare-earth access could also remove some of the scarcity premium supporting alternative U.S. suppliers.

Across America, there's been violence, protests, lawsuits, cancelled projects, and campaigns to impose statewide moratoria to stop AI's impact on cities and small towns across the nation.

And Whitney Tilson believes these frustrations are only going to get worse.

In fact, at midnight on November 4th, the day after our upcoming midterm elections, he believes it's all going to come to a head.

And it will have huge implications on your portfolio. He's sharing his full analysis free, here.

The opportunity: Intermediate-term Treasuries.

Why now: The 10-year closed at 4.97%, up 0.86 points from a year ago. You're being paid well to wait.

Bull case: If oil keeps falling and inflation cools, yields drop and bond prices rise. You collect income plus potential gains.

Risk: Fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury issuance, and corporate borrowing keep pressure on long-term yields.

Watch: The 5% level on the 10-year.

Apollo is limiting withdrawals again. Investors sought to withdraw roughly 14.7% of shares, and the $25.9 billion fund will repurchase just 5%.

Requests are easing. Most came from investors resubmitting unfulfilled requests from prior quarters.

If you hold a non-traded BDC in your IRA, remember: your exit is quarterly and capped.

Watch: Q4 redemption requests across the big managers.

Money is leaving banks for AI infrastructure.

Yesterday the Dow slipped 0.4% while the Nasdaq rose 0.45%. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup each fell about 1% as the rate hike flattens the yield curve. Former bitcoin miners turned AI infrastructure providers, like Hut 8, gained roughly 4%.

Sustained rotation matters more than one day's index move.

The 10-year has climbed from about 4.70% to 4.97% in one month, briefly topping 5% on Fed day. It has stalled just below that line since.

A sustained break higher could trigger repricing across assets that depend on long-term cash flows, including high-valuation growth stocks.

Stocks enter today flat, but oil and yields are the real story. Falling crude is the cleanest path to fewer Fed hikes, and that would help bonds and growth stocks alike.

Stay constructive, lean into income at these yields, and let tomorrow's summit headlines settle before chasing chips.

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