Sunday, October 4, 2026
☀️ GOOD AFTERNOON
A bad jobs report used to mean a bad day for stocks. On Friday, it meant the Nasdaq hit a record.
That's the market in October 2026. A cooling economy is welcome news, because it may keep the Fed from raising rates again this month.
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THE BIG STORY
Weak Jobs Report Takes Pressure Off the Fed
The economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, far below the 84,000 economists expected. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, and revisions cut 60,000 jobs from July and August.
That followed Wednesday's cooler-than-expected PCE reading. Headline inflation came in at 3.4% versus the 3.7% forecast, and core fell to 3.0%.
Combined, the two reports changed the outlook fast. Markets put the odds of an October hike near 70% early in the week and around 20% by Friday.
Why it matters: The Fed raised rates to 3.75%–4.00% in September, its first hike since 2023, and signaled one more this year. A pause would ease pressure on borrowing costs and valuations.
One caveat: part of the PCE improvement came from a change in how the BEA measures some prices, not only from cooler inflation.
What we're watching: Wednesday's Fed minutes, then the September CPI report on October 14. The Fed meets October 27–28.
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Tech Takes the Lead Again
The Nasdaq rose 1.2% Friday to 27,190, led by chipmakers. The S&P 500 ended within 1% of its all-time high.
Nvidia hit its first intraday record since May after Morgan Stanley named it a top semiconductor pick again. Its market value is now about $5.72 trillion.
Why it matters: Lower rate-hike odds help long-duration growth stocks most. The rally is narrow, though: the Dow fell 1.3% for the week while the Nasdaq rose 0.5%.
What we're watching: Whether third-quarter earnings support the move. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to grow more than 30% year over year.
The G7 Opens the Emergency Oil Reserves
The G7 and partners agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of crude and diesel over four months, with diesel first.
Brent briefly fell below $100 before settling near $102. Crude flows from the Gulf are recovering, but refinery damage keeps diesel tight.
Why it matters: Energy drives much of the inflation the Fed is fighting. Cheaper diesel feeds into freight, food, and airline costs.
What we're watching: Iran. Washington is sending a third aircraft carrier and 10,000 more troops as talks stall. Any escalation would likely outweigh the reserve release.
The Ticker
Treasuries: The 10-year hit 5.34% intraday Thursday, its highest since 2002.
Gold: It fell as much as 4% to $4,111 as yields rose, then partly recovered after the PCE report.
Bitcoin: Its correlation with stocks has fallen to its lowest since 2015.
MONEY & ECONOMY
Mortgage Rates Hit a Three-Year High
The 30-year fixed averaged 7.28% this week, up from 7.03% and the highest since late 2023. A year ago it was 6.34%.
Investor takeaway: Mortgages follow the 10-year Treasury, not the Fed. Homebuilders and sellers who need a buyer will remain under pressure until yields fall.
Your 2027 Social Security Raise Arrives October 14
The SSA will announce the 2027 COLA when September CPI is released. Estimates are about 3.5%, compared with 2.8% this year.
Investor takeaway: Medicare Part B is projected to rise about $6.60 a month, so part of that raise is already spent.
Consumers Keep Spending
Nominal spending rose 0.9% in August, even with slower hiring.
Investor takeaway: Strong demand is why the Fed hasn't ruled out another hike.
CORPORATE RADAR
Tesla — Q3 deliveries were 486,532 versus about 461,000 expected, and shares rose 4.7%. Deliveries were still down about 2% from last year. Earnings are October 21.
Mattel — Shares jumped nearly 19% Thursday on a report of takeover interest from Authentic Brands Group.
Boeing — It avoided a strike by its largest white-collar union. Shares rose 3%.
Disney — Shares fell 3% on a report that its TV reorganization could mean hundreds of layoffs.
Broadcom — Shares rose 3.4% on a report that it is raising funding for AI chips.
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AROUND THE WORLD
Europe: Eurozone inflation reached 3.8% in September, the highest since 2023, as energy prices rose 18.8%. The ECB decides October 29.
Japan: The BOJ raised rates to 1.25% last month, the highest since 1995. Higher Japanese rates can draw money away from US bonds.
China: Hong Kong stocks had their worst day since March after investors judged Beijing's latest stimulus too small.
Middle East: Iran's inflation is nearing 90% under the US blockade.
THE NUMBER
5.28%. That's where the 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday. It's the highest close since May 2002.
The 10-year rose 87 basis points last quarter, its sharpest quarterly increase since 1994. Oil-driven inflation, Fed hikes, and heavy government borrowing are all pushing it higher.
For borrowers, that's a cost. For you, it's an opportunity: you can earn more than 5% for a decade from the US government. Lower-risk income hasn't looked like this in a generation.
ON INVESTOR’S RADAR
Monday — ISM Services PMI
Tuesday — Trade balance
Wednesday — Fed minutes (2 p.m. ET), 10-year auction
Thursday — Jobless claims, 30-year auction
Friday — Consumer sentiment (preliminary)
Earnings: Constellation Brands, Levi Strauss, PepsiCo (Thu), Delta Air Lines (Fri)
The Main Event: Wednesday's minutes from the September meeting. Look for how many officials favored a second hike and how much the oil shock concerned them. Weak demand at the Treasury auctions could push yields higher again.
CHART OF THE DAY
The 30-year rate went from 6.49% in June to 7.28% on October 1. It has risen for six straight weeks.
Why it matters: If you're downsizing or helping kids buy, timing matters. Most of the rise reflects the 10-year yield, so pay closer attention to bond auctions than Fed decisions.
THE WATCHLIST
PEP — Reports Thursday. A read on whether consumers are still accepting higher prices.
DAL — Reports Friday. Jet fuel is the variable; watch for comments on whether the diesel release helps.
NVDA +1.3% — At a record. Watch whether it holds as yields rise.
IN OTHER NEWS
EVs: Rivian fell 3% despite deliveries in line with guidance.
Washington: The Supreme Court begins its new term Monday. Midterms are November 3.
Breakouts: Hewlett Packard Enterprise, CrowdStrike, and Palo Alto Networks reached new 52-week highs.
Manufacturing: The ISM prices-paid index was 77.9, well above forecasts. Factories are still paying more.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Stocks start the week near records, with bond yields at a 24-year high. Both can't be true for long.
Last week's data bought the Fed time. Wednesday's minutes will show whether the Fed sees it the same way.
We'll be watching the 10-year, oil, and Delta's fuel commentary.
See you before the bell Monday.
P.S. The NRC decision I'm watching is expected in December. If it plays out the way I anticipate, this stock may not stay under the radar much longer. I'd encourage you to watch my full presentation before then — while the opportunity is still ahead of the news cycle.